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Prediction for CME (2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-30T12:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39167/-1
CME Note: Hazy CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-05-30T12:53Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this CME appears to be continued dimming and field line movement following a wide eruption associated with an M3.4 class flare from AR 4100. These features can be seen clearly in SDO AIA 211. This CME overlaps with earlier CME: 2025-05-30T06:38Z which is associated with the M3.4 flare, where as this event is more associated with the subsequent dimming following the flare. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density, followed by a drop in density. There is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components seen further in the signature (after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating possible start of a flux rope (there are also two more potential flux ropes seen in the 2-day solar wind signature). This CME would likely have been swept by the front of the following, much faster, 2025-05-31T00:15Z CME, the combined front arriving early.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T05:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T13:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39196/1
Model Inputs:
2025-05-30T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=502.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T13:28Z
2025-05-30T12:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2025-05-30T19:16Z
2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=1302.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2025-05-31T02:32Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-01T13:24Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =16.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.7
(kp)90=8
(kp)180=9

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-05-31T22:12Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-01T15:26Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-04T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250530_132900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 13.78 hour(s)
Difference: -8.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2025-05-31T15:35Z

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